Præsidenten fører

George W. Bush fører nu for første gang i år over demokraternes John Kerry. Det viser en meningsmåling foretaget af Los Angeles Times. Man skulle tro, det var en nyhed, de danske medier ville kaste sig over. Men når det går godt for Bush og skidt for Kerry, er det lige pludselig ikke så interessant at rapportere fra den amerikanske valgkamp. Årsagen til at præsidenten har taget føringen, kan til en vis grad findes i de seneste ugers reklamer, som kritiserede Kerry's soldatertid i Vietnam og efterfølgende modstand mod Vietnamkrigen. Den ene af reklamerne har imidlertid vist sig at være direkte løgn, imens den anden, der kritiserede Kerry for at have kaldt sine soldaterkammerater for krigsforbrydere i en høring i senatet i 1971, principielt havde sin rigtighed. Den historie har vi alle hørt. Og hvis de danske korrespondenter besinder sig og rapporterer om den bemærkelsesværdige meningsmåling, vil vi efter alt at dømme også blive fortalt, at republikanerne ikke skal glæde sig for tidligt.

Vietnam-veteranerne

Vi vil formentlig blive tudet ørerne fulde om, at præsidentens folk muligvis har meget nære forbindelser til Vietnam-veteranerne, der indsatte reklamerne, og at reklamerne derfor vil ramme Republikanerne som en boomerang. Den sædvanlige klagesang. Historien er dog ikke så enkel. Kerry viste således svaghedstegn allerede efter Demokraternes konvent. Ikke mindst Kerrys tale blev ellers skamrost af medierne. I Danmark var hans tale ligefrem forsidehistorie. Men lige lidt hjalp det, selvom et parti normalt stiger med ca. 10 procent. point efter et veltilrettelagt konvent. Det gik nærmest lige modsat. I de mest positive meningsmålinger gik Kerry frem med 3 procentpoint. I andre var Kerry ligefrem gået tilbage. I Washington tumler man stadig med udfaldet. Journalisterne har røde ører, og forskerne hiver sig i håret. Ikke siden 1972 er et parti gået tilbage efter et konvent. Og 1972 skræmmer naturligvis. I 1972 tabte Demokraternes George McGovern som bekendt stort til Præsident Nixon. Hørte journalisterne, hvad man ville høre, eller hørte amerikanerne bare ikke det samme som journalisterne? Svaret burde give grund til eftertænksomhed. Også i de danske medier. Ikke mindst når man så tydeligt favoriserer den demokratiske kandidat over den siddende republikanske kandidat. Valget i USA er ikke afgjort trods den seneste meningsmåling. Historisk er meningsmålingerne i begyndelsen af september dog et ret sikkert pejlemærke. Kun en gang er det ikke gået som meningsmålingerne forudsagde i begyndelsen af september. Det var i 1980, hvor Jimmy Carter og Ronald Reagan havde lige stor tilslutning i september, men hvor Reagan alligevel vandt en jordskredssejr.

Af Kasper Elbjørn Senest opdaterede: 24 April 2009, 22:19

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